Meriliikenteen tulevaisuuden käyttövoimien ja polttoaineiden vertailu

Varustamosäätiö on tilannut Gaia Consulting Oy:ltä selvityksen, jossa vertaillaan yleisellä tasolla meriliikenteen tulevaisuuden käyttövoimia ja polttoaineita. Työn tavoitteena oli luoda kokonaisnäkemys 10-30 vuoden tähtäimellä kehityssuuntiin, jotka kytkeytyvät laivojen käyttövoimaan, polttoainevaihtoehtoihin, päästöihin ja päästökertoimiin. Gaia selvitti tulevaisuuden päästövähennystavoitteita meriliikenteelle, niiden saavuttamiseen tarvittavia uusia käyttövoimaratkaisuja ja uusien polttoaineiden tuomia riskejä ja mahdollisuuksia.

Työn tuloksena syntyi meriliikenteen energiamuotojen ja polttoainevaihtoehtojen keskinäisen aseman vertailu kiristyvien markkinavaatimusten ja regulaation tilanteessa. Vertailun johtopäätökset ovat luettavissa alla.

  • The pressure to shift away from fossil fuels quickly is high due to IMO’s emission reduction targets. Even though regulation does not help, if new technical solutions are not mature enough.
  • Hybrid systems will be developed further, consisting of several power sources. They provide a platform to integrate smaller scale renewable and low emission solutions for several vessel types, especially in cruise ships and special vessels used for local shipping (e.g. ferries, feeder traffic).
  • Although LNG generates emission reductions compared to HFO, it is a fossil fuel and thus unfortunately not a permanent solution. In light of tightening regulation, LNG seems to be an intermediate phase in ship fuels/propulsion even though this phase can last for a long time due to the long lifetime of ships and due to the fact that there are no enough solutions nor funding for the time being to provide new solutions in demanding marine environments and power needs. According to present knowledge and in today’s ship investments, with approximately 30-40 years lifetime LNG is still a relevant solution a major cases. The lifetime of LNG may be even longer as expected if the price drops due to high production volumes compared to usage, or due to cleantech related development.
  • One of the most promising alternative fuels in the long run (2040=>) is ammonia. As a carbon free and abundantly available fuel, it is expected (at least by DNV GL) to overtake the fossil fuels in the coming decades. Hydrogen fuel cells may have a complementary role, too.
  • The electrification of ports reduces greatly the need for power for especially passenger ships, when there is shore power available. One large question regarding electrification in ports is the current lack of international standardization (countries use different electricity voltages and power plugs).
  • There are two main ways to increase the use of low carbon shipping fuel propulsion solutions: through increasing taxes on fossil fuels to make the low carbon alternatives more cost effective, or through significant innovation support specifically directed towards low carbon shipping.
    • Strong lobbying needed also in Finland, to make the Government direct more innovation support and other incentives specifically to low carbon shipping.
  • The potential ”sleepers”, that could bring major advances and radical innovations in the industry:
    • Renewable fuels (eg. synthetic diesel), if their production cost come down considerably
      • Renewable fuels have a potential of multiple uses (e.g. when renewable energy is used to create synthetic methane), and could have additional positive effects through the carbon cycle including carbon capture solutions.
    • Mini nuclear power, if it becomes socially acceptable.

Selvitys on saatavissa säätiön asiamieheltä pyydettäessä.